Opinion: Colorado River Supply, The Continuing Saga

2026 has been another bad year for runoff in the Colorado River basin. Already depleted reservoirs are losing water rather than filling from spring runoff. Flow into Lake Powell is running less than half of average. The water level in Lake Powell has fallen to about 20 feet above dead pool, the level at which water can no longer reach the hydroelectric generators. To help counter this the US Bureau of Reclamation, which operates the Colorado River, recently ordered release of up to a million acre feet of water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the Utah-Wyoming border into Lake Powell. The Bureau also ordered a reduction in water release from Lake Powell to Lake Mead of almost half a million acre feet. The hope is that the electricity generators at Lake Powell can continue to operate until next season's runoff begins.

For several years the various Colorado River parties have been trying to reach agreement on a reduction of Colorado River diversions. The states of Arizona, California, and Nevada (the lower basin states), Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming (the upper basin states) along with the Country of Mexico and twenty some Native American Tribal Nations continue to meet and discuss a potential agreement to reduce annual diversion of up to four million acre feet of Colorado River water because flow in the river has declined from earlier predictions and there is simply not enough water for everyone to take as much as they believe they have rights to.

These negotiations have been ongoing, but two deadlines for submitting a proposed agreement to the US Bureau of Reclamation have passed. The most recent of these was this past Valentine's Day. The Bureau of Reclamation has the authority to mandate allocations. Earlier this year the Bureau released a draft environmental impact statement with a preferred alternative that would require California, Arizona and Nevada to reduce up to 3 million acre feet annually, and potentially no specific cuts to the upper basin states. There are reports the Bureau intends to mandate these cuts very soon to replace a 20-year agreement among the parties that expires September 30 of this year. However the Bureau itself has not released a proposed plan and indicates it is continuing to work with the parties.

Almost all parties feel they can negotiate a more equitable allocation, but realize they will have to act quickly. It is likely any unilateral allocation mandated by the Bureau of Reclamation would be challenged in court as there are existing water rights to more water than is available. Litigation would take years and a solution is needed soon or the system of Colorado River dams and reservoirs could cease to function due to lack of water.

The tension between the upper and lower basin states is driven by a number of things. A primary issue is the seniority of water rights. California has the most senior rights and the other lower basin states are next, although some Tribal Nations argue their rights precede all others. Another issue is what different parties have already done to reduce their take of Colorado River water. California has reduced close to half a million acre feet and has offered additional cuts. Arizona has offered cuts as well. The other parties have not yet put offers on the table for consideration by the group.

Each party would like to retain as much water diversion right as possible with the goal of maintaining the vitality of their constituent agricultural, urban and industrial users. Some, like Utah, point to local problems that affect their ability to conserve and reuse water. The Great Salt Lake has problems similar to California's Salton Sea. Salinity continues to rise and inflow of less salty water is reduced. The Great Salt Lake is five times larger than the Salton Sea, but has only a fraction of the inflow. This makes use of treated wastewater for irrigation difficult because it has a higher salt content and increases salinity in the Great Salt Lake. In general the parties upstream from Lake Powell feel constrained by a lack of storage reservoirs upstream from them — a benefit parties below Lake Mead have. Others counter that too much use above Lake Powell is part of the reason its levels have been so low.

Some parties believe bringing in a mediator would be beneficial. Other parties say it is too late for that and that they have to reach agreement amongst themselves very quickly to maintain the Colorado River system. The parties do continue to meet regularly and appear to be cordial to one another. I heard parties recently say, "there are no villains in this." I am hopeful this spirit will continue and that an agreement everyone can accept and not litigate will be reached. It really is critical for all of us who depend on Colorado River water for our lives and livelihoods. Everyone has to give some. Some may be able to give more than others, and it is only fair to recognize what some have already given.

A political reality for leaders who will have to sign off on any agreement is that doing the right thing and giving up water your constituents previously had will not be popular. "I just gave up a quarter of your water, vote for me" is not a compelling campaign slogan. Let's hope for cool heads, altruism, a speedy resolution, and better precipitation in the basin next year.